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經濟學人:美國經濟強勢回升(2)

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The final reason behind the forecast revisions is probably America's flexible labour market. The fall in unemployment in recent months seems to reflect more new jobs, rather than discouraged workers exiting the workforce. In Europe governments have tended to assume much of the payroll cost for furloughed workers. Such schemes are handy in a tight spot. But if prolonged, they could keep workers in jobs that are never coming back. America, by contrast, has mainly protected people's incomes with unemployment benefits (although it has absorbed the payroll costs of many small businesses via loans that may eventually be forgiven). As a result the reallocation of labour from dying industries to up-and-coming ones is happening at speed. For example, the number of travel agents has fallen by 10% since April, even as overall employment has risen. Employment in general-merchandise shops is 6% higher than before the pandemic.

預期提升的最後一大因素大概是美國靈活的勞動力市場。從近幾個月失業率的下降來看,美國工人並沒有沮喪地退出勞動力市場,而是獲得了更多新的就業機會。歐洲國家更願承擔休假工人的大部分工資,該方案用在困境中很是順手,但長期下去反而不利,它雖保住了工人的工資,卻將工人困在了永遠無法恢復的工作崗位上。相比之下,美國主要通過失業救濟來保護人們的收入(儘管它通過最終可能會被免除的貸款吸收了許多小企業的工資成本。)其結果是,勞動力正迅速從垂死的行業被重新分配到新興行業。比如,4月以來雖然整體就業率有所上升,但旅行社相關就業率下降了10%。,而百貨店的就業率卻比新冠爆發前增長了6%。

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Much could still go wrong. The virus could surge again, as it has in Europe. Many forecasters continue to assume, optimistically, that Congress will pass another stimulus package this year. Americans cannot run down their savings forever. And socialdistancing requirements remain in place in much of the country. As a result some labour-market indicators still look dire. In August, even as the overall unemployment rate fell, roughly 3.4m jobs were permanently culled, more than in October 2008, soon after Lehman Brothers collapsed. The rapid rebound this time could yet hit a hard ceiling. But Mr Christensen's optimism no longer looks so exceptional.

美國經濟還有可能再出問題,新冠感染人數可能會像歐洲那樣再次激增。不過許多預測者仍持樂觀態度,認為國會今年將通過另一項經濟刺激計劃。美國人不可能一直吃老底兒。至今美國大部分地區仍要求保持安全距離,其結果是某些勞動力市場的糟糕指標不會有所改觀。儘管8月份的總體失業率有所下降,但仍有約340萬個工作崗位遭遇永久性裁員,該數字比雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破產後不久的2008年10月的數字還要高。這次的快速反彈仍有可能觸及硬頂,但至少克里斯坦森先生的樂觀態度看上去不再那麼突兀。

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重點單詞   查看全部解釋    
forecast ['fɔ:kɑ:st]

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n. 預測,預報
v. 預測

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unemployment ['ʌnim'plɔimənt]

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n. 失業,失業人數

 
exceptional [ik'sepʃənl]

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adj. 例外的,異常的,特別的,傑出的

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pandemic [pæn'demik]

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adj. 全國流行的 n. (全國或全世界範圍流行的)疾

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fell [fel]

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動詞fall的過去式
n. 獸皮
v

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overall [əuvə'rɔ:l]

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adj. 全部的,全體的,一切在內的
adv.

 
absorbed [əb'sɔ:bd]

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adj. 一心一意的;被吸收的 v. 吸收;使全神貫注(

 
surge [sə:dʒ]

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n. 洶湧,澎湃
v. 洶湧,湧起,暴漲

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virus ['vaiərəs]

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n. 病毒,病原體

 
ceiling ['si:liŋ]

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n. 天花板,上限

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